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Fitch Solutions predicts a modest depreciation of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar in the fourth quarter of 2025, yet anticipates an overall appreciation by the year’s end.
The UK-based firm forecasts the cedi to reach GH¢11.70 on the interbank market by December 2025, following a slight 8% weakening trend. This projection comes despite the cedi’s relative stability throughout much of 2025, a stark contrast to the volatility experienced in 2023 and 2024.
The firm attributes this outlook to a combination of fiscal discipline, monetary policy adjustments, and global economic factors influencing currency dynamics.
President Mahama on Ghanaian Cedi: Slight Q4 Weakness, Yet Appreciates by Year-End, Says Fitch Solutions
The anticipated slight weakening in Q4 is expected to be temporary, with the cedi projected to rebound, ending the year stronger against the dollar. This resilience is partly due to the Bank of Ghana’s strategic forex interventions and the positive impact of high commodity prices, particularly gold, on Ghana’s export earnings.
Additionally, ongoing IMF-backed reforms and improved market sentiment have bolstered confidence in the cedi’s recovery trajectory. Fitch Solutions emphasizes the importance of maintaining transparency and proactive monitoring of global trade tensions, such as the US tariff wars, to sustain this upward trend.
For Ghana, this forecast suggests a cautious optimism as the nation navigates through economic challenges. The slight Q4 depreciation is seen as a minor setback within a broader context of stabilization efforts. However, the long-term appreciation of the cedi against the dollar by the end of 2025 could provide a much-needed boost to the economy, potentially easing import costs and enhancing foreign investment appeal. Stakeholders are advised to remain vigilant and adapt to these shifting dynamics to capitalize on the projected recovery.
